Wednesday, January 9, 2008
He's Back!
The White-Breasted Nuthatch, MIA of late, has returned to the peanut feeder, meaning life can go on.
Tuesday's Results
So just how did the pollsters get the New Hampshire Democratic primary so wrong? Going into Tuesday, most surveys had Barak Obama ahead by double figures -- one citing a 13-point difference. Hillary Clinton won by three points, resulting in a 16 point turnaround overnight.
Something's fishy.
I think there's more than one answer:
- The pollsters undercounted the woman vote. Women account for 57 percent of the New Hampshire Democratic turnout. Apparently the surveys failed to adequately account for that differential.
- Independents, who could vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary, shifted over to John McCain on the GOP side at the last minute, depriving Obama of a lucrative source of support.
- Women voters who were on the fence move en masse toward Clinton at the last minute, persuaded by several legitimate arguments, including the claim that Clinton wasn't being afforded sufficient credit for her experience because she's a woman. That's a message that could resonate. There's also a legitimate argument to be made that some women shifted to Clinton because of her Monday show of emotion.
In an odd way it really doesn't matter. These are all preliminaries. Super Tuesday was always going to be the deciding factor. Whoever wins California is well positioned for the nomination.
Something's fishy.
I think there's more than one answer:
- The pollsters undercounted the woman vote. Women account for 57 percent of the New Hampshire Democratic turnout. Apparently the surveys failed to adequately account for that differential.
- Independents, who could vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary, shifted over to John McCain on the GOP side at the last minute, depriving Obama of a lucrative source of support.
- Women voters who were on the fence move en masse toward Clinton at the last minute, persuaded by several legitimate arguments, including the claim that Clinton wasn't being afforded sufficient credit for her experience because she's a woman. That's a message that could resonate. There's also a legitimate argument to be made that some women shifted to Clinton because of her Monday show of emotion.
In an odd way it really doesn't matter. These are all preliminaries. Super Tuesday was always going to be the deciding factor. Whoever wins California is well positioned for the nomination.
They Call it Cognitive Dissonance
Would someone kindly explain the logic behind voting for Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire primary as a means to extract some sort of vengance on Chris Matthews and other bullies who are constantly ridiculing her? The only person who got hurt in this process was Barak Obama.
There are plenty of good reasons to vote for Clinton. She's smart experienced and she has a handle on the big issues -- although I disagree with many of her conclusions. But voting for her in order to show up a moron like Matthews isn't exactly what the founding fathers had in mind when they established the franchise. It's kind of like burning your neighbor's house to the ground because your cable went out in the middle of The Real Housewives of Orange County. There's a legitimate complaint to be made, but your neighbor isn't the most obvious target.
Yet a lot of people are citing this phenomenon as a major reason for Clinton's Tuesday night upset. This is a very strange country sometimes.
There are plenty of good reasons to vote for Clinton. She's smart experienced and she has a handle on the big issues -- although I disagree with many of her conclusions. But voting for her in order to show up a moron like Matthews isn't exactly what the founding fathers had in mind when they established the franchise. It's kind of like burning your neighbor's house to the ground because your cable went out in the middle of The Real Housewives of Orange County. There's a legitimate complaint to be made, but your neighbor isn't the most obvious target.
Yet a lot of people are citing this phenomenon as a major reason for Clinton's Tuesday night upset. This is a very strange country sometimes.
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