Tuesday's Results

So just how did the pollsters get the New Hampshire Democratic primary so wrong? Going into Tuesday, most surveys had Barak Obama ahead by double figures -- one citing a 13-point difference. Hillary Clinton won by three points, resulting in a 16 point turnaround overnight.

Something's fishy.

I think there's more than one answer:

- The pollsters undercounted the woman vote. Women account for 57 percent of the New Hampshire Democratic turnout. Apparently the surveys failed to adequately account for that differential.

- Independents, who could vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary, shifted over to John McCain on the GOP side at the last minute, depriving Obama of a lucrative source of support.

- Women voters who were on the fence move en masse toward Clinton at the last minute, persuaded by several legitimate arguments, including the claim that Clinton wasn't being afforded sufficient credit for her experience because she's a woman. That's a message that could resonate. There's also a legitimate argument to be made that some women shifted to Clinton because of her Monday show of emotion.

In an odd way it really doesn't matter. These are all preliminaries. Super Tuesday was always going to be the deciding factor. Whoever wins California is well positioned for the nomination.